A general view of the factory headquarters in Cologne, Germany, on October 29, 2024, as the IG Metall labor union calls for a one-day strike starting at midnight for better collective bargaining pay for workers.
Ying Tang | Nurphoto | Getty Images
U.S. President Donald Trump allowed a one-month pause on tariffs for automakers that comply with a trilateral trade deal between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. The White House also signaled that Trump is “open” to more tariff exemptions.
Stocks in the U.S. rose in a relief rally, helping to cushion some of Tuesday’s sell-off sparked by the official inauguration of tariffs. The relief, however, may be temporary. Wall Street is already pricing in lower earnings because of headwinds associated with the Trump administration. Meanwhile, private companies added far fewer jobs in February than expected, suggesting some belt-tightening in the corporate world because of economic uncertainty.
But U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said none of this has to do with Trump. “You’re looking at Biden data,” Lutnick argued in a Bloomberg Television interview, saying that former President Joe Biden left Trump with “a pile of poop.”
What you need to know today
Automakers granted relief for now
U.S. President Trump granted automakers a one-month exception from his 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as his reciprocal tariffs coming into effect April 2, U.S. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday on behalf of Trump. The same day, Canada requested consultations with the U.S. at the World Trade Organization over “unjustified tariffs,” Canada’s ambassador to the WTO said. Read the latest developments on Trump tariffs here.
Earnings estimates coming down
The complacency around tariffs is dissipating, wrote CNBC’s Bob Pisani. The stock market is starting to price in lower earnings because of “everything from tariffs to a growth slowdown to inflation, DOGE, and budget issues,” Marc Chandler from Bannockburn Forex told CNBC. For sure, it’s typical for analysts to reduce earnings estimate in the first part of the quarter. But the numbers are coming down faster than usual, Pisani wrote.
Markets rebound
U.S. markets rebounded on Wednesday after Trump said he was open to more concessions on tariffs. The S&P 500 rose 1.12%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.14% and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.46%. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index added 0.91%. The DAX index jumped 3.38% on the back of strong performances by German stocks and news of the country’s potential coalition government planning to boost fiscal spending.
Job additions at private companies slow
Private companies added just 77,000 new workers in February, well off the upwardly revised 186,000 in January and below the 148,000 Dow Jones consensus estimate, according to seasonally adjusted figures from ADP. The total was the smallest increase since July and comes at a time when worries are swirling over slowing economic growth and tariff-induced inflation.
U.S. Commerce Secretary blames Biden
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick argued Wednesday that former President Joe Biden — not his boss, Trump — is to blame for recent negative economic data and a plunge in stock prices. “The president spoke about it last night,” Lutnick said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “He said Biden left him a pile of poop.” The U.S. economy grew by 2.8% in the past year, and the inflation rate in December was 2.9%.
[PRO] Investors head back to bonds
Bonds are resurging in popularity over stocks during this tumultuous period. On Wednesday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered around 4.2%, after topping 4.8% in mid-January. Bond prices move inversely to yields, meaning they have been going up recently, while the S&P has fallen more than 1% for the year. These are some reasons why investors are turning to bonds.
And finally…
Markus Söder (l-r), Chairman of the CSU and Minister President of Bavaria, Friedrich Merz, candidate for Chancellor of the CDU/CSU, Chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group and Federal Chairman of the CDU, Lars Klingbeil, Chairman of the SPD parliamentary group and Federal Chairman of the SPD, and Saskia Esken, Party Chairwoman of the SPD, hold a press conference on the exploratory talks between the CDU/CSU and the SPD.
Kay Nietfeld/dpa | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
Germany’s fiscal U-turn could be a ‘game changer’ for the country’s sluggish economy, analysts say
On Tuesday, Germany’s likely-to-be chancellor Friedrich Merz and other political leaders announced plans to reform the long-standing fiscal pillar known as Germany’s debt brake, specifically to allow for higher defense spending.
Paket stimulus besar senilai 500 miliar euro yang diumumkan oleh Jerman telah menciptakan gebrakan besar dalam pandangan ekonomi global. Dalam sebuah catatan pada hari Rabu, ekonom dan analis dari Bank of America Global Research menyatakan bahwa paket ini “besar, berani, tak terduga – sebuah permainan yang mengubah pandangan ke depan,” dan menambahkan bahwa paket ini secara signifikan mengubah pandangan terhadap ekonomi Jerman.
Manfaat besar juga diharapkan akan dirasakan oleh pasar dan perkiraan pertumbuhan Jerman kemungkinan akan meningkat berkat rencana pembentukan investasi khusus yang baru. Florian Schuster-Johnson, ekonom senior dari Dezernat Zukunft, mengatakan kepada “Street Signs Europe” CNBC pada hari Rabu bahwa paket stimulus ini akan memberikan dorongan ekonomi yang signifikan dan perkiraan pertumbuhan Jerman kemungkinan akan meningkat berkat pembentukan kendaraan investasi khusus yang direncanakan.
### Dampak Positif dari Paket Stimulus Jerman
Paket stimulus besar senilai 500 miliar euro yang diumumkan oleh Jerman telah menciptakan gelombang positif di pasar keuangan global. Dengan rencana pembentukan dana khusus untuk infrastruktur, Jerman berencana untuk memberikan dorongan ekonomi yang signifikan. Para ekonom dan analis dari Bank of America Global Research menyebut paket ini sebagai langkah besar dan berani yang dapat mengubah pandangan terhadap ekonomi Jerman.
### Penilaian Terhadap Paket Stimulus
Menurut ekonom senior Florian Schuster-Johnson, paket stimulus ini akan memberikan dampak positif yang signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Jerman. Dengan adanya investasi khusus untuk infrastruktur, perkiraan pertumbuhan Jerman kemungkinan akan meningkat. Hal ini diharapkan akan memberikan dorongan besar bagi perekonomian Jerman dan pasar keuangan global secara keseluruhan.
### Harapan Pasar terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Jerman
Dengan pengumuman paket stimulus senilai 500 miliar euro, pasar dapat mengharapkan adanya dorongan ekonomi yang signifikan. Diperkirakan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi Jerman kemungkinan akan meningkat berkat adanya rencana pembentukan dana investasi khusus. Para analis pasar memperkirakan bahwa langkah ini akan membawa dampak positif bagi perekonomian Jerman dan berpotensi meningkatkan perkiraan pertumbuhan ekonomi negara tersebut.
### Kesimpulan
Paket stimulus besar senilai 500 miliar euro yang diumumkan oleh Jerman telah menciptakan gelombang positif di pasar keuangan global. Dengan rencana pembentukan dana khusus untuk infrastruktur, Jerman berencana untuk memberikan dorongan ekonomi yang signifikan. Para ekonom dan analis dari Bank of America Global Research menyebut paket ini sebagai langkah besar dan berani yang dapat mengubah pandangan terhadap ekonomi Jerman. Dengan adanya investasi khusus untuk infrastruktur, perkiraan pertumbuhan Jerman kemungkinan akan meningkat. Hal ini diharapkan akan memberikan dorongan besar bagi perekonomian Jerman dan pasar keuangan global secara keseluruhan.
